Q3 2025 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations: Commercial Real Estate Implications
Real GDP expanded by a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.3% during the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This growth was well above the 3.3% consensus estimate, signaling continued economic resilience with important implications for Fort Worth commercial real estate investors.
Consumer Spending Drives Growth
Consumer spending grew at a 3.5% annual pace, contributing about 55% of total output for the quarter. Outlays on healthcare, recreation, and non-durable goods drove the increase in consumer spending—positive signals for retail and medical office investors in the Dallas-Fort Worth market.
A shift in trade dynamics was also a key contributor to the faster-than-expected growth in Q3:
Business Investment and Commercial Property Implications
Meanwhile, business investment grew more tepidly, decelerating to 2.8% in Q3 and contributing a drag on overall economic output. AI investment and cap-ex spending on information processing equipment were robust during the period, but high borrowing costs and labor headwinds tempered spending on structures and residential investment.
For Fort Worth commercial real estate investors, this suggests:
November Jobs Report: Labor Market Signals
According to the latest data from the BLS, nonfarm payrolls were little changed in November, with employers adding just 64,000 jobs following an October decline of 101,000 payrolls. The headline unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose to $36.86, up 3.5% from November 2024.
The most notable job increases were in:
While declines were seen in:
CPI Inflation Trends
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 2.7% year-over-year in November from 3.0% in September. Core-CPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 2.6% year-over-year—its slowest pace since March 2021.
The shelter index of CPI, which has been a key contributor to post-pandemic inflation, cooled to 3.0% year-over-year—a positive sign for apartment operating costs and multifamily investors in Fort Worth.
Commercial Property Prices Show Resilience
According to the latest MSCI-RCA Commercial Property Price Index:
By Sector:
Retail Market Resilience
Despite retail sales being flat month-over-month between September and October, a deeper analysis shows the retail market is chugging along with strong momentum. Year-over-year sales rose 3.8% in October, while core retail sales are up 4.5%.
Signs of underlying strength include:
A TD Cowen study suggests holiday sales growth could be up to 5% higher this year than in 2024—positive for Fort Worth retail property owners.
National Industrial Performance
According to the latest CommercialEdge National Industrial Report:
For Fort Worth industrial investors, the DFW market continues to outperform national averages with strong tenant demand from e-commerce and logistics sectors.
Office Market Stabilization
The US office market has shown signs of stabilization in 2025 as construction activity slowed to historic lows:
Growth in coworking remains an essential driver of sector expansion, with 22 million square feet of coworking space opening in 2025—a 16% increase over last year.
Rent Collections Improve
On-time rental payments in independently operated apartment units rose by 73 basis points in December to 83.7%. While on-time rent collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, they have been trending positively since August.
Western states continue to post the strongest on-time payment rates nationally.
Fort Worth Market Outlook
The strong GDP growth combined with moderating inflation creates favorable conditions for Fort Worth commercial real estate:
Partner With Fort Worth CRE Experts
Navigating these economic trends requires local market expertise. Contact SVN Trinity Advisors for personalized analysis of Fort Worth commercial real estate opportunities aligned with current market conditions.
Written by
Matt Matthews, MBA, CCIMExpert commercial real estate advisor at SVN Trinity Advisors, helping investors and businesses navigate the Fort Worth market.